Liverpool in ninth, Spurs in 10th in only Premier League table that matters

Goals are great, but what’s even better than actual goals? Expected goals. And, according to xG, Liverpool and Spurs are mid.

Here’s the full xG table, and some quick takeaways:

• Chelsea need a striker.
• Liverpool, Tottenham and Arsenal are all over-performing.
• Brighton are back in xG hell.
• Luton should be snug around mid-table.
• Man Utd are bang-average, whatever the metric, and getting worse.
• Burnley and Sheffield United are doomed.

1) Manchester City – 32 points
Actual points: 28 (-4 points)
Burnley W 1.9-0.3
Newcastle United W 1.0-0.3
Sheffield United W 3.5-0.7
Fulham W 2.2-1.4
West Ham W 3.6-0.9
Nottingham Forest W 1.3-1.0
Wolves W 0.9-0.4
Arsenal W 0.5-0.4
Brighton D 0.8-0.8
Manchester United W 4.0-0.9
Bournemouth W 1.9-0.9
Chelsea D 2.9-2.9

2) Chelsea – 31 points
Actual points: 16 (-15 points)
Liverpool W 1.4-1.3
West Ham W 2.5-1.8
Luton W 2.2-0.4
Nottingham Forest W 2.3-0.8
Bournemouth W 1.8-1.0
Aston Villa W 1.3-1.0
Fulham W 1.7-1.1
Burnley W 1.9-0.7
Arsenal W 1.3-1.0
Brentford L 1.9-2.2
Tottenham W 4.0-1.9
Manchester City D 2.9-2.9

3) Newcastle – 27 points
Actual points: 20 (-7 points)
Aston Villa W 3.3-1.8
Manchester City L 0.3-1.0
Liverpool W 2.0-0.9
Brighton L 1.2-1.3
Brentford W 1.4-0.5
Sheffield United W 3.9-0.9
Burnley W 3.2-0.6
West Ham W 2.0-1.2
Crystal Palace W 2.4-1.2
Wolves W 2.2-0.9
Arsenal W 0.9-0.6
Bournemouth L 0.5-2.6

4) Brighton – 26 points
Actual points: 19 (-7 points)
Luton W 4.0-1.5
Wolves W 2.2-2.1
West Ham L 1.5-3.0
Newcastle United W 1.3-1.2
Manchester United W 1.7-1.0
Bournemouth W 1.9-1.1
Aston Villa W 1.7-1.6
Liverpool D 2.3-2.3
Man City D 0.8-0.8
Fulham W 1.4-0.7
Everton L 0.5-0.7
Sheffield United W 1.5-0.7

5) Arsenal – 24 points
Actual points: 27 (+3 points)
Nottingham Forest L 0.8-1.2
Crystal Palace W 2.0-1.0
Fulham W 3.2-0.6
Manchester United W 2.3-0.9
Everton W 1.0-0.3
Tottenham W 1.8-1.4
Bournemouth W 3.4-0.6
Man City L 0.4-0.5
Chelsea L 1.0-1.3
Sheffield United W 2.8-0.0
Newcastle L 0.6-0.9
Burnley W 1.9-0.4

6) Aston Villa – 24 points
Actual points: 25 (+1 point)
Newcastle United L 1.8-3.3
Everton W 2.9-0.6
Burnley W 2.5-0.7
Liverpool L 0.7-2.5
Crystal Palace W 3.0-1.2
Chelsea L  1.0-1.3
Brighton L 1.6-1.7
Wolves W 1.7-1.6
West Ham W 1.9-1.1
Luton W 2.3-0.5
Nottingham Forest W 0.3-1.4
Fulham W 3.0-0.8

7) Brentford – 24 points
Actual points: 16 (-5 points)
Tottenham W 2.2-1.3
Fulham W 3.7-0.5
Crystal Palace W 1.0-0.8
Bournemouth W 2.9-2.1
Newcastle United L 0.5-1.4
Everton L 1.0-1.9
Nottingham Forest W 1.6-0.5
Man Utd L 0.9-1.4
Burnley W 3.1-1.1
Chelsea W 2.2-1.9
West Ham L 1.3-1.8
Liverpool W 1.5-1.4

8) Everton – 24 points
Actual points: 14 (-10 points)
Fulham W 2.7-1.5
Aston Villa L 0.6-2.9
Wolves W 1.3-1.1
Sheffield United W 2.5-1.2
Arsenal L 0.3-1.0
Brentford W 1.9-1.0
Luton Town W 2.9-0.9
Bournemouth W 2.4-0.7
Liverpool L 0.1-2.2
West Ham W 0.8-0.7
Brighton W 0.7-0.5
Crystal Palace L 1.6-2.0

9) Liverpool – 22 points
Actual points: 27 (+5 points)
Chelsea L 1.3-1.4
Bournemouth W 3.0-1.3
Newcastle United L 0.9-2.0
Aston Villa W 2.5-0.7
Wolves W 2.5-0.6
West Ham W 3.0-1.1
Tottenham L 1.3-2.2
Brighton D 2.3-2.3
Everton W 2.2-0.1
Nottingham Forest W 3.2-0.4
Luton W 2.6-0.8
Brentford L 1.4-1.5

10) Tottenham – 21 points
Actual points: 26 (+5 points)
Brentford L 1.3-2.2
Manchester United L 1.7-2.1
Bournemouth W 2.1-0.7
Burnley W 2.2-1.3
Sheffield United W 2.1-0.7
Arsenal L 1.4-1.8
Liverpool W 2.2-1.3
Luton W 1.9-0.8
Fulham W 1.5-1.0
Crystal Palace W 1.1-0.6
Chelsea L 0.9-4.0
Wolves L 0.7-2.1

11) Nottingham Forest – 18 points
Actual points: 13 (-2 points)
Arsenal W 1.2-0.8
Sheffield United W 1.4-0.5
Manchester United L 1.2-2.8
Chelsea L 0.8-2.3
Burnley W 0.7-0.5
Manchester City L 1.0-1.3
Brentford L 0.5-1.6
Crystal Palace W 1.0-0.8
Luton W 2.9-1.7
Liverpool L 0.4-3.2
Aston Villa L 0.4-1.3
West Ham W 1.6-1.5

12) Manchester United – 16 points
Actual points: 21 (+5 points)
Wolves D 2.2-2.2
Tottenham W 2.1-1.7
Nottingham Forest W 2.8-1.2
Arsenal L 0.9-2.3
Brighton L 1.0-1.7
Burnley L 1.0-1.1
Crystal Palace W 1.3-0.9
Brentford W 1.9-0.4
Sheffield United L 1.1-1.4
Manchester City L 0.9-4.0
Fulham L 0.7-1.0
Luton Town W 2.1-0.4

13) Crystal Palace – 12 points
Actual points: 15 (+3 points)
Sheffield United W 1.9-0.5
Arsenal L 1.0-2.0
Brentford L 0.8-1.0
Wolves W 2.1-1.2
Aston Villa L 1.2-3.0
Fulham L 0.3-0.6
Manchester United L 0.9-1.3
Nottingham Forest L 0.8-1.0
Newcastle L 1.2-2.4
Tottenham L 0.6-1.1
Burnley W 1.3-1.1
Everton W 2.0-1.6

14) Luton – 12 points
Actual points: 5 (-7 points)
Brighton L 1.5-4.0
Chelsea L 0.4-2.2
West Ham W 1.4-1.0
Fulham W 1.1-1.0
Wolves W 2.1-0.6
Everton L 0.9-2.9
Burnley W 1.3-1.1
Tottenham L 0.8-1.9
Nottingham Forest L 1.7-2.9
Aston Villa L 0.5-2.3
Liverpool L 0.8-2.6
Man Utd L 0.4-2.1

15) West Ham – 9 points
Actual points: 17 (+8 points)
Bournemouth L 1.1-1.3
Chelsea L 1.8-2.5
Brighton W 3.0-1.5
Luton L 1.0-1.4
Manchester City L 0.9-3.6
Liverpool L 1.1-3.0
Sheffield United W 2.1-1.1
Newcastle L 1.2-2.0
Aston Villa L 1.1-1.9
Everton L 0.7-0.8
Brentford W 1.8-1.3
Nottingham Forest L 1.5-1.6

16) Fulham – 9 points
Actual points: 12 (+3 points)
Everton L 1.5-2.7
Brentford L 0.5-3.7
Arsenal L 0.6-3.2
Manchester City L 1.4-2.2
Luton L 1.0-1.1
Crystal Palace W 0.6-0.3
Chelsea L 1.1-1.7
Sheffield United W 2.2-0.6
Tottenham L 1.5-1.0
Brighton L 0.7-1.4
Manchester United W 1.0-0.7
Aston Villa L 0.8-3.0

17) Wolves – 10 points
Actual points: 15 (+5 points)
Manchester United D 2.2-2.2
Brighton L 2.1-2.2
Everton L 1.1-1.3
Crystal Palace L 1.2-2.1
Liverpool L 0.6-2.5
Luton L 0.6-2.1
Manchester City L 0.4-0.9
Aston Villa L 1.6-1.7
Bournemouth W 2.4-0.6
Newcastle L 0.9-2.2
Sheffield United W 1.2-1.1
Tottenham W 2.1-0.7

18) Bournemouth – 9 points
Actual points: 9 (level)
West Ham W 1.3-1.1
Liverpool L 1.3-3.0
Tottenham L 0.7-2.1
Brentford L 2.1-2.9
Chelsea L 1.0-1.8
Brighton L 1.1-1.9
Arsenal L 0.6-3.4
Everton L 0.7-2.4
Wolves L 0.6-2.4
Burnley W 1.1-0.8
Manchester City L 0.9-1.9
Newcastle United W 2.6-0.5

19) Sheffield United – 3 points
Actual points: 5 (+2 points)
Crystal Palace L 0.5-1.9
Nottingham Forest L 0.5-1.4
Manchester City L 0.7-3.5
Everton L 1.2-2.5
Tottenham L 0.7-2.1
Newcastle United L 0.9-3.9
West Ham L 1.1-2.1
Fulham L 0.6-2.2
Man Utd W 1.4-1.1
Arsenal L 0.0-2.8
Wolves L 1.1-1.2
Brighton L 0.7-1.5

20) Burnley – 3 points
Actual points: 4 (+1 point)
Manchester City L 0.3-1.9
Aston Villa L 0.7-2.5
Tottenham L 1.3-2.2
Nottingham Forest L 0.5-0.7
Manchester United W 1.1-1.0
Newcastle United L 0.6-3.2
Luton L 1.1-1.3
Chelsea L 0.7-1.9
Brentford L 1.1-3.1
Bournemouth L 0.8-1.1
Crystal Palace L 1.1-1.3
Arsenal L 0.4-1.9

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