Arsenal should swerve desperation transfer triple tax for £80m striker

‘Arsenal are likely to have to pay up to £80 million for Ivan Toney,’ begins the report in The Times. Well the excellent news for Arsenal is they don’t have to pay; they can choose not to pay a Premier League tax multiplied by an English supplement plus a January toll for an excellent striker who nevertheless should cost nobody £80m. Not at 27 and absolutely not after eight months of no competitive football.

If you have months to scour the world for a striker and you still land just a few miles away in west London and agree to pay £80m for a player with one England cap then something has gone awry. Not at Brentford, who quite rightly would prize Premier League survival – by no means guaranteed – over a £50m transfer fee for their biggest asset, but at Arsenal.

If this is the process then don’t trust it.

Toney is an excellent finisher and a very obvious upgrade on Eddie Nketiah, but it is difficult to think of a top-flight striker who would not be an obvious upgrade on Eddie Nketiah; it’s not an exclusive club. Arsenal spent £200m this summer and neglected to buy a natural finisher after a season in which they finished more goals behind Manchester City than points. But that oversight should not lead to lunacy just a few months later. Especially when the chances of winning the Premier League title already look remote.

No club should spend massive amounts of money in January unless they need marginal gains. Is a title challenge within sight? Would a few points make the difference between a Champions League finish and disaster? Is relegation a clear and present danger? If not, wait until the summer when prices inevitably come down.

If you must pay a January toll, then do not voluntarily add a Premier League tax and an English supplement. Arsenal have been linked with Feyenoord striker Santiago Gimenez, five years Toney’s junior and lord knows how much cheaper. And crucially, Gimenez is already playing and scoring for a team that usually dominates possession, not a Brentford side that scores a disproportionate number of goals on the counter-attack. The pace and power of Toney, thriving on the last man, is not exactly a natural fit for an Arsenal side reliant on intricate football against deep defences.

Yes, he will have better movement than Nketiah when corners or long throws skid across the box. Yes, he is a near-unerring penalty-taker. No, he will not be bullied by opposition centre-halves. But is that worth £80m? Not if a handful of goals Arsenal might not otherwise have scored is ultimately the difference between finishing third and second, no.

The combination of January, English and Premier League should only be for the desperate. The only big transfer that fitted that description last January was Anthony Gordon to Newcastle, who had scored just one goal in four Premier League games and a top-four spot was in serious jeopardy. Gordon ultimately contributed very little to their eventual success but his £40m transfer was driven by the idea that he might.

Those who think Chelsea will panic and buy Toney need to remember their policy of 25-and-under transfers; a move for a seething Victor Osimhen makes far more sense. At £80m – priced as such because Brentford really do not want to sell – Toney should make sense for absolutely nobody. As a general rule, if Manchester City would not be interested at even half the price, avoid avoid avoid.